To start with... what is shale oil? Shale oil (after extraction) is exactly the same as any other crude oil. It can be put in a refinery to create gasoline or diesel exactly the same as what you are using now. However, the oil reserves we are familiar with are conveniently packaged for us in nice, easy pockets in the Earth. Oil is collected in underground caverns, so that if we poke a hole in the cavern, we can simply slurp out the oil. This is incredibly convenient, but perhaps the exception, the rare case.
Shale oil is mixed in with rock (shale). The oil is trapped in pores and layers and tiny pockets within the porous rock. It may be that shale oil is the early version of the crude oil deposits we are
familiar with. If so, shale oil may be far more abundant than traditional oil wells as the early stage of traditional oil pockets.
The nation of Estonia has been commercially extracting shale oil for more than a decade. Estonia has no natural energy resources, except some hydroelectric. Therefore, they must use shale oil or freeze in the Winter. A phone call to the Embassy of Estonia in Washington, D.C., to the very knowledgeable commercial attache, will confirm that Estonia has been advising the U.S. Department of Energy at the technical level since 1999 on techniques for extracting oil from shale. However, because Estonia has plenty of water available, Estonia's techniques are adapted to a water-rich environment and require adjustments to succeed in America's dry mid-West.
Nevertheless, Estonia has actual, real-world experience and Estonian experts are already serving as consultants to help the United States become energy indepedent. Estonia just signed a contract with the Kingdom of Jordan to extract shale oil in Jordan. (Jordan, unlike its richer neighbors, has no traditional oil.)
We know with absolute certainty that we can extract oil from shale (rock) in America's West. The shale is ground up into gravel-like pieces, and then "retorted" at high temperatures and pressures, controlling the amount of oxygen in the retort chamber. The Unocal demonstration project in Colorado proved it. A demonstration project in Queensland, Australia (under similar conditions to the USA) produced 700,000 barrels of commercial crude oil from 2001 to 2003.
More water was created than consumed by the Unocal / Paraho demonstration project in Colorado. Opponents of modern life (who want the country to run on granola) say that extracting shale oil "requires" large amounts of water in an otherwise dry part of the Rocky Mountain / Midwest. Untrue. The Paraho project in Colorado created so much surplus water that they had to build evaporation plants to get rid of all the excess water. That's because the shale rock contains water locked up inside, just as it contains oil. Where water is abundant, techniques are chosen that take advantage of the available water, such as in Estonia. But this is not "required." Furthermore, 3/4's of the Earth's surface is water, and we have the technology to extract fresh water from the sea if we need it.
However, these were demonstration projects -- intended to work out the bugs and lead to improved, final designs. Critics object that Queensland did not turn a profit and uncovered problems. But that is exactly the purpose of a demonstration project: To experiment. At today's prices for oil over $100 per barrel, the Queensland, Australia project would have been highly profitable.
However, there is still much research and development to find better ways to do it... better for the environment, better in terms of lower costs, better in terms of not needing water resources in the dry mid-West, and better in terms of getting the most oil out per ton of rock in the most ideal chemical form.
Different methods make a difference in terms of controlling the chemical reactions with the rock when the shale is heated to 700 to 800 degrees. Some methods require more or less water. Some methods produce a surplus of water from water trapped within the rock, but then produce less oil per ton of shale in the output. So there can be a trade-off between dry areas without available water versus optimal output of oil from the shale.
Simply using "brute force," we know we can do it. The only question is can we do it better. Instead of mining the rock, bringing it to the surface, and "retorting" the shale on the surface, many are looking at heating the rock underground, where it is mined, to avoid moving all the rock. Shell oil is looking at freezing the surrounding rock with refrigeration to ensure that no oil seeps out of the area to become a pollutant. Some of the more innovative people are even experimenting with microwave oven technology to heat the rock!
Will this harm the environment? Well, we must be certain it does not. But here is what is involved: Rock containing oil is ground up, and the oil is removed, leaning behind only clean rock. In other words, we propose to CLEAN the environment by removing the oil, leaving behind nothing but rock!
Efforts to extract shale oil have also broken a lot of hearts along the way. That is because oil prices dropped to $19 per barrel in the early 1990's. The entire oil industry went through a catastrophic financial period with oil so cheap. So, many shale oil projects had to be abandoned with the price of oil so low. But with oil now stepping above the $140 per barrel mark from time to time, the profitability of shale oil is completely different today.
The dominant issue in the history of shale oil is that it has always been cheaper in the past to use traditional oil. But with world oil prices consistently above $40 per barrel, shale oil is now a profitable undertaking at last. Many are hesitant and skittish because of past attempts when oil prices were low, but the time has now come with oil trading at $130 to $140 per barrel.
Remember that "Demonstration Projects" are supposed to be experimental. The purpose is to gain real-world experience. Using that experience, companies then redesign the process, equipment, and facilities to improve results at the lowest cost. These demonstration projects were learning experiences, and were not intended to be the final, commercial version for a money-making effort.
Don't want to believe it? It's true anyway. We can fuel our cars for a hundred years from shale oil. However, chew on this... Worse comes to worse, shale oil (known as the "rock that burns") could simply be ground up and burned like coal to generate electricity or to create hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cell cars. Even if we don't extract the oil, the ground-up shale can be a substitute for clean-burning coal.